People_

Dr Shuvo Bakar

Senior Lecturer
Sydney School of Public Health
Faculty of Medicine and Health

Email

[email protected]

Details

Member of Sydney Environment Institute

Member of Sydney Southeast Asia Centre

Websites

Google Scholar Profile

ORCID

Data Science for Complex Systems

Biographical details

Shuvo Bakar holds a PhD in Statistics from the University of Southampton, UK. Prior to joining the University of Sydney, he worked as an Assistant Professor at Yale University, USA; Lecturer at the Australian National University; and as a Scientist at Data61, CSIRO.

Research interests

Statistical Methods:

Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling, Machine Learning, Complex Systems, Spatio-temporal Modelling, Small Area Estimation, Design of Experiments, Bayesian Adaptive Designs.

Applications:

Epidemiology, Clinical Trials, Infectious Diseases, Child Health, Extreme Events and Health.

Teaching and supervision

PUBH5218: Advanced Statistical Modelling

BSTA5014: Bayesian Statistical Methods

Current projects

NHMRC Clinical Trials and Cohort Studies: "New passive immunisation, nirsevimab, to prevent severe respiratory
infections among First Nations children in the Northern Territory: a pragmatic
randomised controlled trial". (CI; 2025-2030; $4.67m)
MRFF Cardiovascular Health: "AUS HEARTS: Implementing the evidence-based cardiovascular risk reduction package ‘HEARTS’ in regional and remote Australia". (AI; 2025-2030; $4.78m)
NHMRC-IDEAS Grant: "Novel modelling to improve decision-making for neighbourhood design to reduce chronic disease risk". (CI; 2021-2025; $930k)
MRFF Grant: "Optimising the treatment of antibiotic resistant urinary tract infections in children: The FOSUTI Trial". (CI; 2023-2028; $1.5m)
MRFF International Clinical Trial: "A multi-centre randomised controlled trial to treat acute T-cell mediated rejection in kidney and kidney pancreas transplant recipients (TACKLE-IT trial)". (AI; 2024-2028; $2.7m)
HEAL Innovation Fund: "The impact of bushfire and other extreme weather events on long term NSW public hospital service and capacity planning". (CI; 2023-2024; $50k)
FMH-Business Fund: "Health workforce surveillance under extreme climate/weather events". (CI; 2023-2024; $10k)
Ignition Grant: "Develop an indicator to track climate change impact on health inequity to inform policy change: Basedon multi-dimensional big data and multidisciplinary climate risk assessment". (CI; 2024-2025; $40k)

Associations

Editorial Board Member of Nature Scientific Report andDiscover Public Health
Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS)
Member of the Statistical Society of Australia (SSA)
Committee Member of the Comp Stat and ML, RSS (2024)
Committee Member of the EnvStat Section of the RSS (2023)
Australian Trials Methodology (AusTriM) Research Network

Awards and honours

Australian Academy of Science Fellowship (AISRF) 2018

Office of Chief Executive (OEC) Fellowship, CSIRO, Australia 2011

ORS Fellowship, Secretary of State for Education, UK 2008

Themes

Obesity, Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease, Reproductive, Maternal and Child Health

Keywords

Biostatistics, Computational biology, Environmental health, Public health

Approaches

Epidemiology, Ethics, Statistics/Research Design

Current research students

Project title	Research student
MIXED METHODS STUDY: CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOLASTALGIA IN THE ASIA PACIFIC, FOCUSING ON INDIGENOUS PEOPLES AND ETHNIC MINORITIES.	Caillin DUNSFORD

Expand all

Books

Chakrabarti, A., Bakar, K., Chakraborti, A. (2023). Data Science for Complex Systems. United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. [More Information]

Journals

McDonald, E., Bailie, R., Radchenko, P., Bakar, K. (2025). Interlinkage between health workforce availability and socioeconomic status in rural and remote Australia. PloS One, 20(4), e0321198. [More Information]
Khan, J., Bakar, K., Awan, N., Muurlink, O., Homaira, N. (2024). Accuracy of Mothers’ Perception of Birth Size to Predict Birth Weight Data in Bangladesh. Maternal and Child Health Journal, 28(10), 1677-1684. [More Information]
Tay, E., Dymock, M., Lopez, L., Glover, C., Huang, Y., Bakar, K., Snelling, T., Marsh, J., Wu, Y. (2024). Applying causal inference and Bayesian statistics to understanding vaccine safety signals using a simulation study. n p j Vaccines, 9(1), 163-163. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Teixeira-Pinto, A., Gately, R., Boroumand, F., Lim, W., Wong, G. (2024). Dynamic prediction of kidney allograft and patient survival using post-Transplant estimated glomerular filtration rate trajectory. Clinical Kidney Journal, 17(11), sfae314-sfae314. [More Information]
Khan, J., Lingam, R., Owens, L., Chen, K., Shanthikumar, S., Oo, S., Schultz, A., Widger, J., Bakar, K., Jaffe, A., et al (2024). Social deprivation and spatial clustering of childhood asthma in Australia. Global Health Research and Policy, 9(1). [More Information]
KC, U., Aryal, J., Bakar, K., Hilton, J., Buyya, R. (2023). Applying Bayesian Models to Reduce Computational Requirements of Wildfire Sensitivity Analyses. Atmosphere, 14(3). [More Information]
Miller, C., Bakar, K. (2023). Conflict Events Worldwide Since 1468BC: Introducing the Historical Conflict Event Dataset. Journal of Conflict Resolution: research on war and peace between and within nations, 67(2-3), 522-554. [More Information]
Jin, H., Jiang, W., Chen, M., Li, M., Bakar, K., Shao, Q. (2023). Downscaling long lead time daily rainfall ensemble forecasts through deep learning. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. [More Information]
Khan, J., Islam, M., Faisal, A., Islam, H., Bakar, K. (2023). Quantification of Urbanization Using Night-Time Light Intensity in Relation to Women’s Overnutrition in Bangladesh. Journal of Urban Health, 100(3), 562-571. [More Information]
Khan, J., Bakar, K., Zhang, Y. (2023). Residential land surface temperature and diabetes among urban adults in Bangladesh. Environment, Development and Sustainability. [More Information]
Khan, J., Bakar, K., Zhang, Y. (2023). Residential land surface temperature and diabetes among urban adults in Bangladesh. Environment, Development and Sustainability. [More Information]
Yadav, A., Das, S., Bakar, K., Chakraborti, A. (2023). Understanding the complex dynamics of climate change in south-west Australia using Machine Learning. Physica A, 627. [More Information]
Jin, H., Li, M., Hopwood, G., Hochman, Z., Bakar, K. (2022). Improving early-season wheat yield forecasts driven by probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 315. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Jin, H., Henderson, B., Bramley, R., Gobbett, D., Ratcliff, C. (2021). An algorithm to identify the appropriate size of a neighbourhood when analysing spatially distributed field experiments by local cokriging. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 188, 106328. [More Information]
Jin, H., Shuvo Bakar, K., Henderson, B., Bramley, R., Gobbett, D. (2021). An efficient geostatistical analysis tool for on-farm experiments targeted at localised treatment. Biosystems Engineering, 205, 121-136. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Biddle, N., Kokic, P., Jin, H. (2020). A Bayesian spatial categorical model for prediction to overlapping geographical areas in sample surveys. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society, 183(2), 535-563. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Jin, H. (2020). Areal prediction of survey data using Bayesian spatial generalised linear models. Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation, 49(11), 2963-2978. [More Information]
Chakraborti, A., Sharma, K., Pharasi, H., Bakar, K., Das, S., Seligman, T. (2020). Emerging spectra characterization of catastrophic instabilities in complex systems. New Journal of Physics, 22(6), 63043. [More Information]
Bakar, K. (2020). Interpolation of daily rainfall data using censored Bayesian spatially varying model. Computational Statistics, 35(1), 135-152. [More Information]
Khan, J., Bakar, K. (2020). Spatial risk distribution and determinants of E. coli contamination in household drinking water: a case study of Bangladesh. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 30(3), 268-283. [More Information]
Khan, J., Bakar, K. (2020). Targeting at risk households in Bangladesh exposed to arsenic contamination: a spatial analysis. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 30(1), 1-12. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Jin, H. (2018). Spatio-temporal quantitative links between climatic extremes and population flows: a case study in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Climatic Change, 148(1-2), 139-153. [More Information]
Pepper, D., Lada, H., Thomson, J., Bakar, K., Lake, P., Mac Nally, R. (2017). A method to identify drivers of societal change likely to affect natural assets in the future, illustrated with Australia's native biodiversity. Science of the Total Environment, 581-582, 80-86. [More Information]
Pepper, D., Lada, H., Thomson, J., Bakar, K., Lake, P., Mac Nally, R. (2017). Potential future scenarios for Australia's native biodiversity given on-going increases in human population. Science of the Total Environment, 576, 381-390. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Kokic, P., Jin, H. (2016). Hierarchical spatially varying coefficient and temporal dynamic process models using spTDyn. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 86(4), 820-840. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Kokic, P., Jin, H. (2015). A spatiodynamic model for assessing frost risk in south-eastern Australia. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics, 64(5), 755-778. [More Information]
Crimp, S., Bakar, K., Kokic, P., Jin, H., Nicholls, N., Howden, M. (2015). Bayesian space-time model to analyse frost risk for agriculture in Southeast Australia. International Journal of Climatology, 35(8), 2092-2108. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Sahu, S. (2015). spTimer: Spatio-temporal bayesian modeling using R. Journal of Statistical Software, 63(15), 1-32. [More Information]

show 25 more

Expand all

2025

McDonald, E., Bailie, R., Radchenko, P., Bakar, K. (2025). Interlinkage between health workforce availability and socioeconomic status in rural and remote Australia. PloS One, 20(4), e0321198. [More Information]

2024

Khan, J., Bakar, K., Awan, N., Muurlink, O., Homaira, N. (2024). Accuracy of Mothers’ Perception of Birth Size to Predict Birth Weight Data in Bangladesh. Maternal and Child Health Journal, 28(10), 1677-1684. [More Information]
Tay, E., Dymock, M., Lopez, L., Glover, C., Huang, Y., Bakar, K., Snelling, T., Marsh, J., Wu, Y. (2024). Applying causal inference and Bayesian statistics to understanding vaccine safety signals using a simulation study. n p j Vaccines, 9(1), 163-163. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Teixeira-Pinto, A., Gately, R., Boroumand, F., Lim, W., Wong, G. (2024). Dynamic prediction of kidney allograft and patient survival using post-Transplant estimated glomerular filtration rate trajectory. Clinical Kidney Journal, 17(11), sfae314-sfae314. [More Information]
Khan, J., Lingam, R., Owens, L., Chen, K., Shanthikumar, S., Oo, S., Schultz, A., Widger, J., Bakar, K., Jaffe, A., et al (2024). Social deprivation and spatial clustering of childhood asthma in Australia. Global Health Research and Policy, 9(1). [More Information]

show 1 more

2023

KC, U., Aryal, J., Bakar, K., Hilton, J., Buyya, R. (2023). Applying Bayesian Models to Reduce Computational Requirements of Wildfire Sensitivity Analyses. Atmosphere, 14(3). [More Information]
Miller, C., Bakar, K. (2023). Conflict Events Worldwide Since 1468BC: Introducing the Historical Conflict Event Dataset. Journal of Conflict Resolution: research on war and peace between and within nations, 67(2-3), 522-554. [More Information]
Chakrabarti, A., Bakar, K., Chakraborti, A. (2023). Data Science for Complex Systems. United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. [More Information]
Jin, H., Jiang, W., Chen, M., Li, M., Bakar, K., Shao, Q. (2023). Downscaling long lead time daily rainfall ensemble forecasts through deep learning. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. [More Information]
Khan, J., Islam, M., Faisal, A., Islam, H., Bakar, K. (2023). Quantification of Urbanization Using Night-Time Light Intensity in Relation to Women’s Overnutrition in Bangladesh. Journal of Urban Health, 100(3), 562-571. [More Information]
Khan, J., Bakar, K., Zhang, Y. (2023). Residential land surface temperature and diabetes among urban adults in Bangladesh. Environment, Development and Sustainability. [More Information]
Khan, J., Bakar, K., Zhang, Y. (2023). Residential land surface temperature and diabetes among urban adults in Bangladesh. Environment, Development and Sustainability. [More Information]
Yadav, A., Das, S., Bakar, K., Chakraborti, A. (2023). Understanding the complex dynamics of climate change in south-west Australia using Machine Learning. Physica A, 627. [More Information]

show 5 more

2022

Jin, H., Li, M., Hopwood, G., Hochman, Z., Bakar, K. (2022). Improving early-season wheat yield forecasts driven by probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 315. [More Information]

2021

Bakar, K., Jin, H., Henderson, B., Bramley, R., Gobbett, D., Ratcliff, C. (2021). An algorithm to identify the appropriate size of a neighbourhood when analysing spatially distributed field experiments by local cokriging. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 188, 106328. [More Information]
Jin, H., Shuvo Bakar, K., Henderson, B., Bramley, R., Gobbett, D. (2021). An efficient geostatistical analysis tool for on-farm experiments targeted at localised treatment. Biosystems Engineering, 205, 121-136. [More Information]

2020

Bakar, K., Biddle, N., Kokic, P., Jin, H. (2020). A Bayesian spatial categorical model for prediction to overlapping geographical areas in sample surveys. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society, 183(2), 535-563. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Jin, H. (2020). Areal prediction of survey data using Bayesian spatial generalised linear models. Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation, 49(11), 2963-2978. [More Information]
Chakraborti, A., Sharma, K., Pharasi, H., Bakar, K., Das, S., Seligman, T. (2020). Emerging spectra characterization of catastrophic instabilities in complex systems. New Journal of Physics, 22(6), 63043. [More Information]
Bakar, K. (2020). Interpolation of daily rainfall data using censored Bayesian spatially varying model. Computational Statistics, 35(1), 135-152. [More Information]
Khan, J., Bakar, K. (2020). Spatial risk distribution and determinants of E. coli contamination in household drinking water: a case study of Bangladesh. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 30(3), 268-283. [More Information]
Khan, J., Bakar, K. (2020). Targeting at risk households in Bangladesh exposed to arsenic contamination: a spatial analysis. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 30(1), 1-12. [More Information]

show 3 more

2018

Bakar, K., Jin, H. (2018). Spatio-temporal quantitative links between climatic extremes and population flows: a case study in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Climatic Change, 148(1-2), 139-153. [More Information]

2017

Pepper, D., Lada, H., Thomson, J., Bakar, K., Lake, P., Mac Nally, R. (2017). A method to identify drivers of societal change likely to affect natural assets in the future, illustrated with Australia's native biodiversity. Science of the Total Environment, 581-582, 80-86. [More Information]
Pepper, D., Lada, H., Thomson, J., Bakar, K., Lake, P., Mac Nally, R. (2017). Potential future scenarios for Australia's native biodiversity given on-going increases in human population. Science of the Total Environment, 576, 381-390. [More Information]

2016

Bakar, K., Kokic, P., Jin, H. (2016). Hierarchical spatially varying coefficient and temporal dynamic process models using spTDyn. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 86(4), 820-840. [More Information]

2015

Bakar, K., Kokic, P., Jin, H. (2015). A spatiodynamic model for assessing frost risk in south-eastern Australia. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics, 64(5), 755-778. [More Information]
Crimp, S., Bakar, K., Kokic, P., Jin, H., Nicholls, N., Howden, M. (2015). Bayesian space-time model to analyse frost risk for agriculture in Southeast Australia. International Journal of Climatology, 35(8), 2092-2108. [More Information]
Bakar, K., Sahu, S. (2015). spTimer: Spatio-temporal bayesian modeling using R. Journal of Statistical Software, 63(15), 1-32. [More Information]

Selected Grants

2024

Develop an indicator to track climate change impact on health inequity to inform policy change: Based on multi-dimensional big data and multidisciplinary climate risk assessment, Bakar K, Wu L, Sohail A, McNaught R, Zhang Y, Office of Global and Research Engagement/Ignition Grants

2023

Health workforce surveillance under extreme climate/weather events, Bakar K, Faculty of Medicine and Health/Multidisciplinary Research Accelerator
Optimising the treatment of antibiotic resistant urinary tract infections in children: The FOSUTI Trial, Williams P, Britton P, Bakar K, Snelling T, Totterdell J, Howell M, McKinn S, Department of Health and Aged Care (Federal - administered by NHMRC)/2021 Clinical Trials Activity

Book on Complex Systems: "Data Science for Complex Systems"

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Dr Shuvo Bakar

Publications

Selected Grants

2024

2023